Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 302043 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...IAN BECOMES POST-TROPICAL BUT THE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WIND THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 79.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from south of the South Santee River. The entire Hurricane Warning and Watch areas have been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Savannah River to Altamaha Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Edisto Beach to Cape Fear North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River to Cape Fear North Carolina * Neuse River North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico River * Cape Fear River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 79.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). Ian is forecast to move farther inland overnight over eastern South Carolina, move across central North Carolina early tomorrow and western Virginia by early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring primarily over water. Ian should continue to weaken overnight and dissipate over western North Carolina or Virginia late tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Oak Island, North Carolina recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches) based on surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Cape Fear River...2-4 ft * South Santee River to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft * Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area through overnight. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: * Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches. * Central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches * Elsewhere in Virginia, portions of West Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland: 1 to 3 inches, local maxima of 5 inches. Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia today. Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible today into early Saturday across portions of northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across eastern North Carolina, shifting northward into southeast Virginia tonight through early Saturday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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