000
WTNT32 KNHC 022040
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024
 
...EYE OF BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 70.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean, including the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize, should closely monitor the 
progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings will be required 
tonight or on Wednesday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 70.8 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn more
toward the west Wednesday night or Thursday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the central 
Caribbean Sea tonight and is forecast to pass near or over Jamaica 
on Wednesday.  The center is expected to pass near or over the 
Cayman Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday and approach the 
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is forecast during the next day 
or two.  However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major 
hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and 
the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Additional weakening is 
expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane 
in the northwestern Caribbean.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday.  Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands 
Wednesday night or early Thursday.  Winds are expected to first 
reach tropical storm strength on Wednesday, making outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight.
 
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5
to 8 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.
 
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the
immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.
 
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.
 
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica
and southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late Wednesday. Beryl
will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated
amounts of 10 inches across Barahona Peninsula in southwest
Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also
anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican
Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and
mudslides. Beryl is also expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches with localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands
Wednesday into Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or so.
Swells will impact the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and 
Hispaniola, and begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
through midweek. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven