000
WTNT35 KNHC 130831
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024
 
...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 61.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 61.3 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h).  A west-northwestward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next day or so.  On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move
across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or
over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
evening.  After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto 
is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday over the waters
north of the Greater Antilles.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.  St. Barthelemy recently reported a wind gust of 
53 mph (85 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations in the Leeward Islands is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and
Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for the Leeward Islands beginning during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.
 
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning in the next several
hours.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven