000
WTNT25 KNHC 142041
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  68.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  68.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  68.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N  69.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.7N  68.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N  66.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.3N  65.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N  65.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 37.0N  64.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.4N  58.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  68.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG