000
WTNT35 KNHC 151455
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024
 
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 69.2W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 69.2 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h).  This general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or
north-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over
Bermuda on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and 
Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength by Friday.  Ernesto 
is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.  A 
Saildrone just north of the center measured sustained winds of 46 
mph (74 km/h) with a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h).
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12
inches.  This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde