027 
WTNT25 KNHC 152045
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
2100 UTC THU AUG 15 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  68.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 230SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  68.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  69.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.6N  68.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N  66.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.3N  65.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N  65.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.5N  64.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.9N  63.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N  57.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.1N  43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  70SE  70SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW  70NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N  68.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/ONDERLINDE