000
WTNT25 KNHC 160233
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  68.1W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 230SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  68.1W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  68.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N  67.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.4N  65.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.1N  65.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N  64.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.4N  64.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.2N  62.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 45.6N  54.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 51.0N  36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 190SE 180SW   0NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N  68.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI