000
WTNT35 KNHC 160233
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024
 
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES
BERMUDA...
...PREPARATIONS ON BERMUDA SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 68.1W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was 
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 68.1 West. Ernesto is 
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This 
general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a 
slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday.  A faster 
northeastward motion is expected later in the weekend.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or 
over Bermuda on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the 
next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength 
on Friday.  Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near 
Bermuda on Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles
(425 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air 
Force Hurricane Hurricane aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations 
of 6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 
inches.  This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening 
flash flooding.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the 
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach 
Bermuda.  Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United 
States overnight and continue into the weekend, and could reach 
portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday.  These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out 
of the water if advised by lifeguards.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi