972 
WTNT35 KNHC 161442
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024
 
...LARGE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BRING BERMUDA STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS
STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 66.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was 
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 66.4 West. Ernesto is 
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This 
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by 
Saturday.  A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the 
weekend.  On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected 
to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so,
though some re-intensification is possible by early next week.
 
Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds 
extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and 
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). 
Saildrone SD-1068 located to the northeast of Ernesto recently 
reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (73 km/h), with a gust up to 57 
mph (93 km/h). 
 
The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15
inches.  This rainfall will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on
the island.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.  Swells are
expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later
today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of
Atlantic Canada by late Saturday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin