255 
WTNT25 KNHC 162043
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  65.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  65SE  50SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  65.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  66.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.9N  65.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  50SE  35SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 230SE 110SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.1N  64.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  65NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.6N  64.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.6N  63.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  30SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  55SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.8N  61.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  70SE  45SW  35NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N  57.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  75SE  45SW  35NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.0N  42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 160SW  50NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 53.5N  22.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N  65.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN