000
WTNT25 KNHC 160843
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0900 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  67.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 230SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  67.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  67.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.6N  66.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 210SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N  65.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.8N  64.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.2N  64.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.2N  63.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.4N  61.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N  51.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 180SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 52.5N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 270SE 270SW   0NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N  67.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE