000
WTNT25 KNHC 161440
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  66.4W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  65SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  66.4W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  66.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  55SE  40SW  35NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 230SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.5N  64.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 110SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.8N  64.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  45SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.4N  63.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.1N  62.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  75SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.6N  59.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 140SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.4N  47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 160SW  50NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 52.0N  26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 270SE 270SW   0NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N  66.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN