000
WTNT35 KNHC 160843
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024
 
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE 
AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS BERMUDA STARTING LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 67.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h).  This
general motion is expected to continue today followed by a
slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday.  A faster
northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend.  On the
forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or
over Bermuda on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, 
and Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on 
Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend.
 
Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend 
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and 
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning this afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 
6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 
inches.  This rainfall will likely result in considerable 
life-threatening flash flooding.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.  Swells are 
expected to spread up the east coast of the United States today and 
continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic 
Canada by late Saturday.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water 
if advised by lifeguards.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake