000
WTNT35 KNHC 170231
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024
 
...ERNESTO VERY NEAR BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 65.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was 
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 65.2 West. Ernesto is 
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual 
slowdown is expected during the next day or so.  An accelerating 
northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early 
next week.  On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected 
to pass near or over Bermuda Saturday morning and near or east of 
Newfoundland Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so,
though some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend.
 
Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend 
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and 
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). 
The Bermuda International Airport recently reported sustained winds 
of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (120 km/h). 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air 
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
WIND: Winds on Bermuda are expected to increase to hurricane force
early Saturday.  Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong
winds will continue on the island into Saturday night.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely
result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially
in low-lying areas on the island.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States.
These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late
Saturday.  Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days.  Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of
the water if advised by lifeguards.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi