000
WTNT25 KNHC 120240
TCMAT5
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2024
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  50.1W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  50.1W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  49.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N  53.9W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.6N  58.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.2N  61.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N  63.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.7N  65.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.3N  66.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.5N  67.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 28.5N  65.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N  50.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH