000
WTNT25 KNHC 121455
TCMAT5
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2024
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  55.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  23 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  55.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  54.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.5N  58.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.3N  62.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N  64.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.8N  66.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.5N  67.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.7N  68.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  80SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 27.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 110NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N  65.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N  55.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART