000
WTNT35 KNHC 120836
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024
 
...DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 52.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
and Culebra.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor
the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.  Additional
watches or warnings could be required later this morning.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.4 North, longitude 52.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue 
with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.  
On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across 
portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. 
and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and 
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later 
today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the 
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). A 
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
system this morning.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce 
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the 
Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with 
maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is 
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday 
morning:
Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches 
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning late tonight or Tuesday.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico 
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and 
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. 
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet 
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands.  Near the 
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven