398 
WTNT32 KNHC 172050
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
400 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
...DISTURBANCE IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...BUT THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ACROSS JAMAICA, HISPANIOLA, AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA CONTINUES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 77.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Jamaica.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.7 North, longitude 77.7 West.  The system is moving faster 
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and an additional 
acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across 
southeastern Cuba tonight and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and 
Caicos Islands Saturday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of 
days, but the system's chance of becoming a tropical cyclone appears 
to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas
of heavy rain, across southeastern Cuba and Haiti through tonight,
and over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and
southern Hispaniola through Sunday. These rains are likely to
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.
 
The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across
the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands.
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba through Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg