Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023
064 WTNT41 KNHC 300246 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023 The depression has lost some organization since this morning. Only a few disorganized showers are present to the east of the depression's slightly elongated surface wind field. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, but this is higher than 00Z Dvorak estimates from TAFB or SAB. An ASCAT-B pass just missed the center of the depression, but did not show any indication of winds higher than about 25 kt in the eastern portion of the depression's wind field, so its possible the NHC intensity analysis is generous. The depression has moved erratically since it formed, with its recent movement estimated near 285/2 kt. Continued meandering is likely tonight, but the cyclone should begin to lift slowly northward by tomorrow, moving in low-level steering currents between Hurricane Franklin and a ridge over the central Atlantic. The latest NHC forecast is a little slower than the previous, remaining close to the multi-model track consensus. It's still possible that the depression could briefly organize enough deep convection to become a tropical storm. However, this does not appear to be the most likely scenario anymore and it is not supported by any dynamical models. Upper-level outflow from Franklin should cause the depression to become a post-tropical remnant low within about 2 days, if not sooner, and most models forecast it will dissipate within the next 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 28.2N 52.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 28.6N 52.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 29.4N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 30.4N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 32.4N 52.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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