000
WTNT35 KNHC 130241
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024
 
...ERNESTO APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 59.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 59.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h).  A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next day or so.  On the forecast track, Ernesto 
is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands by early 
Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.  Ernesto is then forecast to turn 
northward over the western Atlantic.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and
Virgin Islands.  For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
Windward Islands... 1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area 
for the Leeward Islands beginning early Tuesday. Tropical storm 
conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands 
and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.
 
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch