000
WTNT35 KNHC 131456
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024
 
...ERNESTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF ST. KITTS
AND NEVIS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, VIEQUES, AND
CULEBRA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 62.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Culebra, and Vieques.
 
The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the British Virgin Islands.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Vieques and Culebra
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours or so.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the 
progress of Ernesto.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 62.6 West.  Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A motion 
toward the northwest and then north at a slower forward speed is 
expected on Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Ernesto should pass near or over the Virgin Islands this 
evening, and then pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto 
Rico tonight and on Wednesday.  Ernesto should then move over the 
western Atlantic later in the week.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and 
Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.  A wind gust to 65 mph (105 km/h) was recently 
reported on St. Barthelemy.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands
from Guadeloupe to Dominica and across the U.S and British Virgin
Islands.   Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals
of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
warning area in the Leeward Islands.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
later today and tonight.  Hurricane conditions are also possible
over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra this evening into
tonight.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.
 
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and will spread westward to
Puerto Rico later today.  These swells will then reach the
Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda on Thursday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg