000
WTNT21 KNHC 280833
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112024
0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  45.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  45.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  44.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.0N  46.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.5N  48.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.1N  49.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.7N  49.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.3N  49.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.6N  49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N  50.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  45.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN